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CITIC Jiantou: With the increase of policy stimulus, the pro-cyclical catering chain is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the expected improvement. According to CITIC Jiantou Research Report, since September, heavy meetings have continuously released a clear policy signal to strive to achieve the goals and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year, and policies such as lowering the standard, reducing interest rates, lowering the mortgage interest rate, supporting local governments to resolve government affairs risks, issuing special government bonds to supplement core Tier 1 capital, using various tools to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and increasing support and guarantee for key groups have been released one after another. Focusing on boosting consumption and expanding effective domestic demand, the food and beverage industry is expected to usher in an inflection point, and its performance and valuation are expected to continue to improve. The liquor sector is expected to rebound with the boost of the domestic economy and the activation of household consumption, and the business scene and mass consumption boom will return to the consumption upgrading channel, and the profitability of leading liquor companies is expected to accelerate the repair. At present, the overall valuation of the liquor sector is still at a low level, and the long-term investment value is prominent. With the increase of policy stimulus, the pro-cyclical catering chain is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the expected improvement. Continue to be optimistic: 1) The leisure snacks and beverage industries maintain a high degree of prosperity, and new channels bring important incremental opportunities to companies in the industry; 2) Combined with the catering channels that are recovering continuously, it is suggested to pay attention to condiments, beer and catering chain labels with innovative products or reform expectations. At the same time, the current market price of molasses has further dropped from the previous month, which is of great help to yeast enterprises to improve their profit elasticity. 3) The inflection point of the raw milk cycle is approaching, the gift scene is expected to be repaired, and the dairy products continue to upgrade their structure, with high dividends and outstanding cost performance.Guotai Junan: It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate in the bottom range in 2025, and there is a strong opportunity and space for rebound. Guotai Junan Securities recently reported that the lithium price has entered the bottom range by the end of 2024. If the demand maintains the current neutral estimate in 2025, the lithium price will fluctuate in the bottom range. At present, the market is optimistic about the demand in 2025, and the industry supply has slowed down. It is estimated that the price trend of lithium will fluctuate in the bottom range in 2025, in which the stage is affected by seasonal factors and there is a strong rebound opportunity and space. The market expected the trading of lithium plate earlier, that is, when the commodity price bottomed out, the lithium plate already contained the expectation of industrial clearing. When the industry actually enters the stage of supply and clearing, the sector will trade commodity price reversal expectations. From this, we infer that the rise of lithium plate will start before the spot price reverses.The moderate increase in inflation in the United States consolidated the expectation of interest rate cuts in December. According to the data released by the US Department of Labor on December 11, local time, the US consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.3% in November, an increase of 0.1 percentage point over October. Inflation continues to rise moderately, which is in line with the market's previous judgment and also supports the expectation that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates this month. However, considering the slowdown in inflation and the increase in uncertainties affecting the economy, many analysts believe that the Fed may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts in the future. (Economic Information Daily)

CICC: Cloud and terminal AI landing In 2025, the localization of semiconductors and components ushered in a new cycle. According to CICC's research report, in 2024, semiconductors and components as a whole were in the upward stage of prosperity. It is expected that inventory, supply and demand will stabilize in 2025, and AI cloud and terminal demand will land, and domestic elements will usher in a new cycle. It is expected that in 2025, the AI ​ ​ replacement tide is expected to accelerate the downstream demand growth of the semiconductor design sector. We are optimistic about the demand expansion of cloud and end-side computing chips driven by AI, and the alpha level of individual stocks is optimistic about the pull of product structure expansion on the performance of related companies, and it is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by mergers and acquisitions for some tracks. It is expected that the supply and demand of chip manufacturing will approach a balance in 2025, and the capacity utilization rate will remain at a reasonable level; Among them, the research and development of advanced process manufacturing is expected to continue to advance, driving the development of equipment, parts, materials and design tools.Full-page observation of People's Daily: Accelerate the construction of world-class universities and advantageous disciplines with China characteristics.Luxury car dealers "switch to" domestic brands, and the competition between new and old forces spread to the channel side. Recently, Beijing Huayang Aotong Automobile Sales Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Huayang Aotong") announced that "the company will no longer continue the distribution business of Audi brands, but will continue to engage in the maintenance business of Audi models". On December 12, the reporter went to Huayang Aotong in Laiguangying, Beijing. The above announcement was posted at the entrance, and the store has been replaced with the "AITO" logo. There is no Audi car in the store, and it has been replaced by two models for sale in the world. A luxury brand dealer who did not want to be named revealed to reporters that Huayang Aotong had indeed been cancelled by Audi, and Zhengzhou Zhongsheng Huidi Store was also withdrawn from the network with it, all because it switched to Huawei's channel network without permission. "The war between new forces and traditional car companies has burned from the product side to the channel side." According to Zhang Xiuyang, secretary-general of China Passenger Car Industry Alliance, the "price war" that lasted for nearly two years has made it difficult for car dealers who are in retail terminals and have been upside down all the year round, and their loyalty has also declined. At the same time, in the tide of the era of smart cars, the concept of consumption is changing rapidly, and the high-end electric vehicle brands in China are gradually winning the wide favor of the market and consumers. (Securities Daily)

Apple is reported to cooperate with Broadcom to develop AI chips, and TSMC's advanced process will welcome big orders again. On December 13, it was reported that Apple intends to invest in self-developed AI chips, jointly develop them with Broadcom, and produce them in TSMC's 3 nm process, and mass-produce them in 2026. The legal person is optimistic that after the development of Apple's self-developed AI chip is completed, the investment is expected, and TSMC's advanced process will usher in another big order. It is understood that Apple's current A-series processors for iPhone and M-series processors for Mac all adopt self-developed strategies, and are exclusively manufactured by TSMC. The legal person believes that once Apple's self-developed chips are extended to AI chips, the cooperation with TSMC will be closer. (Taiwan Province Economic Daily)Ministry of National Defense: There is no need for the Japanese side to be frightened. On the morning of December 13th, Senior Colonel Wu Qian, director of the Information Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense and spokesman of the Ministry of National Defense, released news about the recent military-related issues. Reporter: Japanese Prime Minister Shi Pomao recently delivered a policy address, saying that the current international order is facing major challenges. Chinese aircraft carriers sail in the waters close to Japan's territorial waters, and carrier-based aircraft have conducted thousands of take-off and landing trainings in the Pacific Ocean; Based on the national security strategy, Japan will greatly strengthen its defense forces. What is China's comment on this? Wu Qian: The so-called "China military threat" was hyped by the Japanese side only to cover up its usual trick of getting rid of the shackles of the peaceful constitution and returning to the old road of military expansion. As a matter of fact, the diplomatic and defense departments of China and Japan have been maintaining communication on air and sea security issues. There is absolutely no need for the Japanese side to be jittery and nervous. The publication of these data just proves that the Japanese side has been tracking, monitoring and interfering with Chinese ships and aircraft at close range for a long time, endangering the safety of Chinese ships and aircraft and easily causing sea and air safety problems. In recent years, despite the opposition of the international community, Japan has gone further and further on the road of military expansion, which has aroused strong concern among neighboring countries and the international community. We urge Japan to draw lessons from history, be cautious in the field of military security and do more things that are conducive to maintaining regional peace and stability. China is willing to continue to maintain communication with Japan on properly handling air and sea emergencies, and hopes that Japan will move in the same direction with China, take the overall situation into consideration, take the right path, and jointly safeguard the stability of the air and sea situation and the overall situation of Sino-Japanese relations.After the release of the Bank of Japan's short-term report, the yen rose slightly.